The momentum of the 2025-26 NBA Finals has completely shifted. After taking a commanding 2-0 lead with two road victories in San Antonio, the New York Knicks suffered a stunning home loss in Game 3, seeing their series lead cut to 2-1. While they still hold a series advantage, their home-court invincibility is now broken.

Game 4 is shaping up to be the pivotal turning point of the Finals. The Knicks, who stormed through the playoffs as the East's dark horse, have built their run on elite team defense, disciplined execution, and clutch shot-making. In the first two games, they stifled San Antonio with their zone defense, controlled turnovers, and made winning plays down the stretch. Jalen Brunson has played through injuries while continuing to deliver steady scoring, playmaking, and late-game heroics.

The Spurs, meanwhile, looked lost in the first two games, exposing issues with backcourt rhythm and composure under pressure. On the brink of elimination, they staged a massive Game 3 comeback. Victor Wembanyama dominated the paint with 32 points on both ends of the floor, neutralizing New York's interior defense. De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle regained their form, knocking down outside shots and creating offense to relieve pressure on Wembanyama, breaking the Knicks' defensive schemes. However, San Antonio's ongoing struggles in crunch time remain a lingering concern.

Game 4 will again be played at Madison Square Garden. In Game 3, the Spurs battled hard to secure their first win of the series, but the game also revealed their continued inability to contain Brunson and, in particular, OG Anunoby, who repeatedly punished San Antonio's perimeter defense with mismatches and nearly led a miraculous comeback with a late three-pointer.

With another battle on the horizon, Wembanyama's stamina after a grueling Game 3 performance is a major question mark. The Knicks have enjoyed more rest and will be better conditioned. Given their home-court advantage and fresher legs, despite the Spurs' Game 3 victory, the team more likely to come out on top in Game 4 is still the New York Knicks.

Prediction: Knicks to win Game 4